Is civilisation heading for a COLLAPSE? Mathematical historian predicts political turmoil will peak in the 2020s

The rise and fall of civilisations can be predicted by a simple equation, and our civilisation is in for a fall some time soon. This is according to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut, who says the world should be prepared for years of political turmoil

Professor Peter Turchin uses mathematical models to predict political events

He says his models predicted a rise of political turmoil starting three years ago

This is expected to reach a peak some time in the 2020s, according to his theory

This includes decline of living standards and declining health of the state

The rise and fall of civilisations can be predicted by a simple equation, and our civilisation is in for a fall some time soon.

This is according to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut, who says mathematics can explain human behaviour far more accurately than you might think.

And if his calculations are correct, the world should be prepared for years of political turmoil that will peak at some point in the next century.

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The rise and fall of civilisations can be predicted by a simple equation, and our civilisation is in for a fall some time soon. This is according to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut, who says the world should be prepared for years of political turmoil

WHAT TO EXPECT

The rise and fall of civilisations can be predicted by a simple equation, and our civilisation is in for a fall some time soon.

This is according to Peter Turchin, from the University of Connecticut.

He said the turmoil would be driven by a process of ‘elite overproduction’ in which the number of rich, elite people in society grows larger and they become ever more distant from those poorer.

The academic also predicts ‘the stagnation and decline of living standards and declining fiscal health of the state, resulting from falling state revenues and rising expenses’ would bring about a potentially terminal slump.

A professor of Ecology and Mathematics from the University of Connecticut, Peter Turchin has led the development of a cross-disciplinary subject called ‘cliodynamics’.

‘Cliodynamics is a new ‘transdisciplinary discipline’ that treats history as just another science,’ Professor Turchin says.

He started out using maths to predict human activity from 1500 B.C.E. to 1500 C.E.

Then three years ago, using similar models, he began to forecast the future.

‘My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s,’ he says.

‘The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast.

‘We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak.’

Exactly what will happen when this ‘peak’ occurs is unknown, and Professor Turchin says the theory does not predict events. but trends.

He said the turmoil would be driven by a process of ‘elite overproduction’ in which the number of rich, elite people in society grows larger and they become ever more distant from those poorer….

more…

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4090434/Is-civilisation-heading-COLLAPSE-Mathematical-historian-predicts-political-turmoil-peak-2020s.html#ixzz4Uv8sPZRp
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